IL NOSTRO BLOG
01
Forecast Accuracy and Energy Management: The Key to Resilient Microgrids
Accurate forecasts can make the difference
The optimization of household electricity generation and consumptions strongly relies on the accuracy of PV and load forecast prediction. A paper presents the validazione sperimentale di un EMS che integra experimental validation of an EMS integrating photovoltaic (PV) forecasting at multiple time scales .
The Experiments
The EMS was tested experimentally at the Multi Good MicroGrid Laboratory (MG² Lab) at Politecnico di Milano, operating in fully islanded mode with PV, battery storage, a gas engine, and a desalination unit. Across several real operating days, the system ensured safe operation with no load shedding, outperforming single shot daily optimization strategies.
Forecasting Approach
Tre metodi di previsione del PV sono stati confrontati all’interno dello stesso EMS:
- - Day ahead (24 h) forecasts, ,
- - Intraday hourly updates (3 h horizon), ,
- - Short term nowcasting (30 min horizon). .
These forecasts feed a two layer EMS, combining optimal scheduling with real time correction of forecast errors.
Key Findings
- Improved PV forecast accuracy reduces costs and improves efficiency.
- The hierarchical, rolling horizon EMS guarantees robust microgrid operation even with forecast errors.
Forecast refinement provides measurable benefits without compromising system safety.
The outcome of this work set the base for forecasting implementation in Optim-On and its validation on the microgrid.
Sources: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9717/9/2/323
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